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Gundlach Compares Recent Buy-the-Dip Mentality to Subprime CrisisJeffrey Gundlach is worried that investors are getting suckered into buying the dip in stocks, high-yield bonds and leveraged loans.
In his annual “Just Markets” webcast on Tuesday, DoubleLine Capital’s chief investment officer sounded off on a range of topics, including Bitcoin, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s “pivot,” the growth of the U.S. national debt, and the problem of underfunded state and local government pension plans. But it was the “BTFD” 1mentality that’s lasted for so long in risky corners of the financial market that had him drawing comparisons to the subprime mortgage crisis. He explained his chief cause for concern:
“People were panicking in the later part of December. They were panicking, actually, but the flow data shows they were panicking into stocks, not out of stocks. People have been so programmed, and feel so frustrated by selling when we get dips, that this time they weren’t going to be fooled. This time, they were going to buy the dip. I worry about that, though, because it reminds me a little bit about how the credit crisis developed in 2007 and 2008.”
He’s right. A quick look at fund flow data for the iShares Core S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (ticker IVV) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker SPY) tells the story. The iShares fund avoided outflows from Dec. 11 through the end of last week, even as stocks fluctuated wildly, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The SPDR fund drew the most money since February on Dec. 21, the day it tumbled 2.62 percent, part of the fund’s longest losing streak since January 2008.
Whoever did that is “feeling good today,” Gundlach said. But he offered a reminder of what happened to investors more than a decade ago who snapped up subprime mortgages at what they thought were low prices.
“The people who bought the dip, they didn’t sell, they hung on, and the market started to crack again. And we have that waterfall that ended up happening. The people who bought the dip ended up getting scared and turned from buyers into sellers. There’s potential for that here.”
It’s not just the U.S. stock market that’s witnessing this, either. Junk bonds have come roaring back, with the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield Bond Index already returning 2.5 percent so far in 2019. The average price of leveraged loans, as measured by the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index, is up to 96 cents, compared with 93.8 cents at the end of 2018. Investors should use this recent strength in junk bonds “as a gift, and get out of them,” Gundlach said.
“Investors bought bank loans and high yield, I can understand why you buy the dip, I get it, buying the dip certainly worked back in 2016 and if you missed that, you feel bad about it. But like I said about subprime back in 2007, the first people, they buy the dip, they’ve never done that before, but they’ve been trained now to do it after continued frustration for not doing so, and then when prices head lower, suddenly those buyers turn into sellers, and with all the supply that’s coming, it’s a really interesting issue who’s going to buy it.”
All of this is to say Gundlach doesn’t seem to be a fan of risky investments at these prices. By his thinking, capital preservation is key because markets may be approaching the point at which some of these dips are going to end up being much more than just that. Though he wouldn’t necessarily load up on long-term U.S. Treasuries, either — that rally might be over, after a nice rebound to end 2018, he said.
Dismiss his gloomy outlook if you wish, but, as Bloomberg News’s John Gittelsohn noted ahead of the webcast, a lot of what Gundlach predicted in 2018 came true. He called for U.S. equities to rise early in 2018 but then eventually reverse and leave the market down for the year. He nailed the direction of stocks better than some of his equity counterparts.
If you’re an active fund manager, it’s hard not to sympathize with his view on buying the dip. It has been so prevalent, for so long, that it seemed almost inevitable that the late 2018 drop wouldn’t last. The wave of cash coming into passive ETFs tracking the S&P 500, even as the market tumbled, says it all.
No one is perfect when it comes to predictions, but Gundlach’s 2018 calls were largely spot on. If that happens again in 2019, investors had better buckle up for some turbulent times.
|Do you have a relationship with Mark in any capacity today? What would you say to him if you could? What do you think of what Facebook has become?||We don't have a relationship with Mark. The last time we saw and spoke with him was at the settlement in 2008, and before that was back at Harvard. We do have a relationship with Dustin Moskovitz, we saw him at Burning Man three years ago, and we've kept in touch with him. We've grabbed coffee with him in SF and also got a tour of the Asana offices (his start-up). We're pretty friendly with a lot of people around Mark, but we don't have a relationship as of this moment with him.|
|Hindsight's always 20/20, but it seemed like a lot of the things that happened were unnecessary. There was a way for everyone to be happy and kind of win, and it didn't have to be a zero sum situation. Hopefully we can all learn from that as we move forward and become better people and learn to find the path of least resistance.|
|It's certainly quite an amazing company. I don't think any of us had any idea of how big it could actually be. I think the scariest thing is that it's probably not done growing anytime soon. We're really proud of the part we played, which we think was certainly material to getting it going and I think Mark has certainly done an incredible job shepherding it and leading the company to what it is today. I think that I'm really impressed with what it is and what it most definitely will be.|
|Do you have any thoughts about the ugly contention that's been going on the last several months in the Bitcoin dev community over hardforking to relax the blocksize cap?||We're definitely watching the block size debate, I don't have a super strong opinion, I think everyone agrees that the block size in some way or another should increase and will have to increase in order for Bitcoin to fulfill its promise. We're keeping a close watch, I think its really interesting how the community's is proposing things and it's working in a very democratic process and people are free to propose things and obviously it's a consensus-based system. I think we're seeing that at play and it'll be exciting and interesting to see it unfold. I think that Bitcoin will get through this, it's weathered a lot already and I think its here to stay. I think its just one more of those things we'll get through.|
|How has your relationship as brothers affected your business endeavors over the years?||The fact that we're twins and best friends has been a huge asset. We've definitely always used it to our advantage. It's obviously not always easy getting along all the time, but we've managed to do it and we've made a great team. Both in sports during our rowing career and now financially working together in business. I think trusting your partners is something that's super important, and we have that built in because we're twins and if I do something wrong to him then it's pretty much like doing it to myself. So it's been a great asset and we've tried to make the best of it.|
|I'll piggy back on this Winklevii, how did/do you feel about the craziness that has been Dogecoin and other altcoins?||I haven't personally looked that much into altcoins. I think that with a protocol like bitcoin there's a huge first mover advantage and a lot of network effects and bitcoin has a great head start in that regard in terms of the size of it's mining network and how much infrastructure it has going for itself. I think that the altcoins are very interesting. Some of the other blockchain efforts like Ripple and Ether are interesting, but we haven't spent a whole lot of time with them because we think there's a lot to be done still in bitcoin blockchain 1.0 if you will.|
|What are you doing (if anything) to push 'consumer' awareness of bitcoin and remove the 'scary technological hurdles and requirements' or the huge amount of assumed technical jargon / understanding that the average Joe needs to know in order to get involved with bitcoin and use it in their daily life?||So first off we're here on Reddit, taking about bitcoin – we've learned about bitcoin and been in bitcoin for three years and I can tell you initially it's a lot to wrap your head around, but we've been working hard building Gemini and also we're working on our ETF that will trade under the ticker 'coin' – and so both should be friendly ways to get either bitcoin exposure or actually buy and sell bitcoin. We're trying to make very regulated, safe and secure environments for people to enter into the bitcoin ecosystem so that's what we've been putting our time towards.|
|What is in the immediate future for Bitcoin?||I think that the immediate future for bitcoin (at least in the U.S.) is regulated businesses – licensed businesses, like Gemini. It's impossible to totally see the future but if you look back to the early days of the Internet, I feel like we're in the first or second inning of bitcoin so it's almost like 1993 or 1994 so there is tremendous potential and we think it's just the beginning.|
|What is the Gemini use case for the regular Joe trying to diversify his assets?||Where Gemini comes into play is that we're New York-headquartered, U.S.-based, U.S. regulated and licensed platform to buy bitcoin. So if you make the decision to take the plunge and actually bitcoin for your portfolio and you think it's a good financial investment, then Gemini is a safe and secure home and platform to actually go and execute and buy bitcoin.|
|What's the latest on the ETF?||Unfortunately the ETF regulatory process is a close process and we're not allowed to discuss the latest and greatest with it. We are working incredibly hard to make this happen as quickly as possible, and rest assured that nobody wants this to come to market quicker than myself and u/winky_pop.|
|When either twin owes for lunch do you use Bitcoin?||So I don't usually buy my lunch with bitcoin because I'm worried that I'll be overpaying down the road so right now I'm holding my bitcoin.|
|Are you actually going to answer any questions?||Hey Jim, I think so. Yeah, why not. Here's you're answer.|
|of all, great site design. It was super easy to sign up, and everything seemed to work well. The only.||We're definitely looking at expanding the exchange offering but we want to stay super focused on first things first – and that was getting licensed in the state of New York and having a successful launch but suffice to say we are working hard to expand our airs of operation.|
|These are the things, in my opinion, that will make or break the exchange. There is a lot of demand for a.|
|Is gemini currently a spot market only exchange? What is the plan to bring initial liquidity to the exchange? Do you expect institutional investors to bring a large influx of new money into the bitcoin market? What other cryptocurrencies would you like to see traded on the exchange? Fully regulated and compliant US based exchange that can do everything, a one stop shop if you will. There is. Final question: What makes your exchange different than all the other ones, and why should we trade on it?||(5) We have institutional market makers who are going to be providing liquidity on the exchange and we have a lot of demand from just retail and individuals and also other institutions who want to buy and sell bitcoin, so we think the combination of all the customers and also institutional market makers will make a lively and liquid market.|
|I always have Tyler by me lunch.||That's not true.|
Bitcoin ETFs: ARK Web x.0 ETF (ARKW) Expense Ratio: 0.75% The ARK Web x.0 ETF (NYSEARCA: ARKW) hails from a family of funds focusing on disruptive, next-generation technologies and several ARK A Bitcoin ETF, such as the one proposed by the Winklevoss twins, would have the digital currency bitcoin as an underlying asset. That means that by purchasing a bitcoin ETF, an investor would be indirectly purchasing bitcoin, as he or she would be holding the bitcoin ETF in a portfolio as opposed to the actual digital currency itself. Click on an ETF ticker or name to go to its detail page, for in-depth news, financial data and graphs. By default the list is ordered by descending total market capitalization. Editor’s Note: There are currently no 100% pureplay bitcoin ETFs trading yet, but there are ETFs that invest in bitcoin companies such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust BTC. Bitcoin Ticker - Tick by tick, real time updates. All data is indicative. The Winklevii want to launch an ETF with the ticker symbol COIN, but the SEC has yet to approve it. , which is letting people buy and sell bitcoin on its Cash app.
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The two most common bitcoin futures contracts launched in December of 2017. (XBT, BTC) Here's a tutorial on how to buy bitcoin futures and a look at what margin requirements are for TD Ameritrade. The next BIG event, after the halving is the Bitcoin ETF!! & it's been confirmed and is coming soon! We have research that connects: The Fed, The Treasury, Coinbase & financial powerhouse Blackrock! I would avoid buying the SPY ETF because there is a 1.5% fee that you would pay to Wealthsimple Trade each time you buy/sell US dollar ETFs or stocks. ... to be the first to buy and sell Bitcoin ... Saturday, March 24, 2018 To buy TRX go to these crypto trading sites https://hitbtc.com/?ref_id=5ab638f8886d5 Buy Bitcoins and TRX coin now bitcoin price In a Bloomberg interview , the SEC commissioner, Hester Peirce, said the approval of a Bitcoin ( BTC ) ETF by the regulator could help price Graysclale’s GBTC more fairly. The commissioner has ...